Anthrax Terrorist Threat Advisory

November 12, 2001

FBI ANSIR E-Mail: National Threat Warning System - Terrorist threat advisory update analysis of three known anthrax letters.

The following behavioral analysis has been released to the news media by the FBI in Washington, DC, in an effort to increase public awareness and assistance in the ongoing anthrax investigation. While the analysis is largely a possible prediction, it should not be read to exclude any possible suspects inconsistent with the analysis.

Behavioral assessment--it is highly probable, bordering on certainty, that that three letters, addressed to Tom Brokaw, the New York Post, and Senator Tom Daschle, respectively, were authored by the same person.

Based on the selection of anthrax as the weapon of choice by this individual, the offender is assessed as follows:

• Likely an adult male.
• If employed, is likely to be in a position requiring little contact with the public, or other employees. He may work in a laboratory, and is apparently comfortable working with extremely hazardous material. He probably has a scientific background to some extent, or at least a strong interest in science.
• Has likely taken appropriate protective steps to ensure his own safety, which may include the use of an anthrax vaccination or antibiotics.
• Has access to a source of anthrax and possesses the knowledge and expertise to refine it.
• Possesses or has access to laboratory equipment, i.e., microscope, glassware, centrifuge, etc.
• Has exhibited an organized, rational thought process in furtherance of his criminal behavior.
• Has a familiarity, direct or indirect, with the Trenton, NJ, metropolitan area. However, this does not necessarily mean he currently lives in the Trenton area. He is comfortable traveling in and around this locale.
• Did not select victims randomly. He made an effort to identify the correct address, including zip code, of each victim and used sufficient postage to ensure proper delivery of the letters. The offender deliberately selected NBC news, the New York Post, and the office of Senator Tom Daschle as the targeted victims (and possibly American Media, Inc., located in Florida). These targets are probably very important to the offender. They may have been the focus of previous expressions of contempt, which may have been communicated to others, or observed by others.
• Is a non-confrontational person, at least in his public life. He lacks the personal skills necessary to confront others. He chooses to confront his problems "long distance" and not face-to-face. He may hold grudges for a long time, vowing that he will get even with "them" one day. There are probably other, earlier examples of this type of behavior. While these earlier incidents were not actual anthrax mailings, he may have chosen to anonymously harass other individuals or entities that he perceived as having wronged him. He may also have chosen to utilize the mail on those occasions.
• Prefers being by himself more often than not. If he is involved in a personal relationship it will likely be of a self-serving nature.

Following the events of 9/11/01, this person may have become mission-oriented in his desire to undertake these anthrax mailings. He may have become more secretive and exhibited an unusual pattern of activity. Additionally, he may have displayed a passive disinterest in the events which otherwise captivated the nation. He also may have started taking antibiotics unexpectedly.

He may have exhibited significant behavioral changes at various critical periods of time throughout the course of the anthrax mailings and related media coverage. These changes may include the following: altered physical appearance, pronounced anxiety, atypical media interest, noticeable mood swings, more withdrawn, unusual level of preoccupation, unusual absenteeism, altered sleeping and/or eating habits.

These post offense behaviors would have been most noticeable during critical times, including the mailing of the letters {09/18/01 and 10/09/01}, the death of the first anthrax victim, media reports of each anthrax incident, and especially the deaths and illnesses of non-targeted victims.

Linguistic assessment--the Brokaw and New York post letters are identical copies. The Daschle letter, however, contains a somewhat different message than the other two letters. The anthrax used in the Daschle letter was much more refined, more potent, and more easily disbursed than the anthrax contained in the other two letters.

Previous high-profile investigations conducted by the FBI involving writings were solved with the help of the public in identifying the author by either how he wrote, or what he wrote. We are asking for the public's help here again in the same way.

While the text in these letters is limited, there are certain distinctive characteristics evident within the writing style of the author. They may have been used in other letters, greeting cards, or envelopes written by him. Perhaps someone has received a correspondence from this person and will recognize some of these characteristics.

For example:

• The author uses dashes ("-") in the writing of the date "09-11-01." Many people use the slash ("/") to separate the day/month/year.
• In writing the number one, the author chooses to use a formalized, more detailed version. He writes it as "1" instead of the simple vertical line.
• The author uses the words "can not" when many people prefer to spell it as one word, "cannot."
• The author writes in all upper case block-style letters. However, the first letter of the first word of each sentence is written in slightly larger upper case lettering, as is the first letter of all the proper nouns. This is apparently his way of indicating capitalization in upper case lettering. For whatever reason, he may not be comfortable or practiced in writing in lower case lettering.
• The names and address on each envelope is noticeably tilted on a downward slant from left to right. This may be a characteristic evident on other envelopes he has sent.
• The envelopes are of the pre-stamped variety, the stamps denoting 34 cents, which are normally available directly from the post office. They are not the traditional business size envelopes, but the smaller size measuring approximately 6 1/4" x 3 1/2."

The following details regarding the three letters are provided for the reference of recipients:

The Brokaw letter--one page, hand printed letter transmittal envelope, also similarly hand printed addressed to NBC TV, Tom Brokaw, no return address, postmarked Trenton, NJ, 9/18/2001 (Tues.)

The New York post letter--one page, hand printed letter transmittal envelope, also similarly hand printed addressed to NY Post, no return address postmarked Trenton, NJ, 09/18/2001 (Tues.)

The Daschle letter--one page, hand printed letter transmittal envelope, also similarly hand printed addressed to Senator Daschle, 509 Hart Senate Office Building, return address, 4th grade, Greendale School, Franklin Park, NJ, return address zip code 08852, postmarked Trenton, NJ, 10/09/2001 (Tues.)

This FBI Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) communication is intended for corporate security professionals and others who have requested to receive unclassified national security advisories. Individuals who wish to become direct recipients of FBI ANSIR communications should provide business card information, i.e. company name, address, phone, fax, etc., to ansir@leo.gov for processing, with a brief description of the product and/or service provided by your organization.

Contributed by Brad Minnis, CPP